This is very well stated. The problem with Juan is that he is evidently connected and has a background that makes him highly informed and highly trained at disseminating analysis, so that makes it difficult to separate the actual intel groom the highly educated speculation. I think he gives us both for sure, although the appearance lately is that he's getting less intel or that he is less sure of it. Lately it feels like he's selling himself as much as the audience, because some big predictions fell flat even though he did hedge them.